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Scotland Separation | largest poll in - calls a 'NO' vote by only 4%

OWoN: Scotland will reject independence but only just, says biggest poll so far - The Telegraph.

Independence is set to be rejected with the No vote holding onto a narrow four point lead, by 52% to 48% - with the few remaining undecideds stripped out.

If they do vote to go, Scotland will be bust within a year. It will hand huge voting power to UKIP, who will drive for UK withdrawal from the EU. Only the UK and Germany are major net contributors. If the UK pulls, German voters will demand the same. The Euro will be dead and the EU will fail. There goes the Western banking system with it. Taking also then the US with it.

Be careful what you vote for. You may get it.

Scotland will reject independence but only just, says biggest poll so far

Independence is set to be rejected with the No vote holding onto a narrow four point lead; by 52 per cent to 48 per cent - with the few remaining undecideds stripped out

The Telegraph
by Keith Perry
17 September 2014

Scotland will reject independence – but only by a whisker, according to the biggest referendum poll carried out so far.

The final YouGov survey for The Sun revealed the result is still on a knife edge as voters turn up on Thursday morning.

Independence is set to be rejected with the No vote holding onto a narrow four point lead; by 52% to 48% - with the few remaining undecideds stripped out.

However, the race was still too tight for YouGov’s analysts to be confident in calling it.

Instead, the polling company only predict an 80 per cent probability that the UK will hold together – giving a breakaway Scotland a 20 per cent chance.

A record breaking total of 3,237 Scots adults were questioned over a 48 hour period between Monday lunchtime and Tuesday lunchtime for the poll – the biggest on Thursday's vote ever taken.

It revealed voters opinions have now hardened considerably since last week’s dramatic shifts that rang alarm bells in Westminster.

There has been very little shift between the two rival camps since YouGov’s last poll for The Sun seven days ago.

With just hours to go before polling stations open at 7am, just 4 per cent of Scotland’s 4.3 million voters said they were still to make up their minds.

As the gap is still extremely close, those 172,000 Don’t Knows could still hold the key to victory for either side – though they would almost all have to come off the fence for Yes if Alex Salmond is to win.

Privately, there was growing confidence last night among Better Together campaign bosses that they will end up winning by a larger margin.

They expect to see the No vote pass 55 per cent as shy No voters emerge and the “cliff edge” effect makes a few Yes voters change their mind about plunging into the unknown at the last minute.

YouGov chairman Peter Kellner told The Sun: “Better Together are likely to have the choice of celebratory drinks – whisky or champagne – shortly before breakfast tomorrow.

“The margin is close enough for an outside chance of an upset. I reckon there is now an 80 per cent chance of a No victory, and a 20 per cent chance of Scotland narrowly voting for independence.”

Mr Kellner added: “The past week has given us a political version of trench war. Both sides have brought out their biggest guns and bombarded their rivals. But, in the end, their troops are back where they were a week ago”.

The YouGov poll revealed there is still a massive gender gap, suggesting thousands of husbands and wives will be voting different ways today.

Among men, a clear majority support breaking away by 54 per cent to 46 per cent.

But among women, an even bigger majority plan to reject independence, by 57 per cent to 43 per cent.

Among age groups, support for independence is firmest with the 25-39s, who say they will vote Yes by 56 per cent to 44 per cent.

Keeping the UK together is far more popular the older the voter gets, with 54 per cent of 60-64 year-olds and an overwhelming 64 per cent of the over 65s voting No.

But the 16-24s and 40-59s age groups are split straight down the middle, 50/50 for Yes and No.

Our poll also revealed that non-Scots born voters could swing the whole referendum against independence.

Among those born north of the border, the Yes/No split is exactly 50/50.

But voters born elsewhere in the UK – who will largely be English – are three to one in favour of remaining British, by 72 per cent to 28 per cent.

The poll also revealed PM David Cameron is now marginally more trusted than the Opposition Leader in Scotland, by 26 per cent to 25 per cent.

The revelation will cause concern among Labour MPs as Scotland has traditionally been a Labour stronghold.

More than four out of five, 83 per cent, also say there is no chance they will change their minds now.

Good weather forecast for Scotland is also expected to help a record turnout for any election since the 1950s, with 80 per cent of the country eligible likely to vote.

A second poll with a smaller sample size out last night – from Ipsos Mori for STV - put the race even tighter, with 51% for No and 49% for Yes.

In other barometers, the Bookies say they money they’ve taken points strongly to a No vote.

Ladbrokes gave odds of 1/5 for No, and just 7/2 on Yes.

But social media analysis signals Yes should win, with independence supporters three times more active on platforms like Twitter and Facebook.

link  (videos)


  1. So far the SNP Goon Squad of Thugs have threatened a blind Blind Voter, harassed numerous meetings and communities, blocked voting booth access and shown what nasty Brown Shirt Thugs they really are. If Salmond gets in, God help the Scottish people. If not, we need many of the banged up. Salmond is a very dubious and dodgy Perp at the best of times. Rubbish attracts its own. If they win, by electoral threats, what happens a year later when it fails? Taxes will go through the roof and border controls will be imposed. The nation will become a Banana Republic. A tragic end if so. It will be a hollow victory.

    1. Aren't we in fact after breaking that fascist evil zip-jesuits EU empire at the first place...that would drag down NATO and the West fascist banking scam and finally bury USA of Fascist NAZI clan?

      I thought this is for sure preferable since any other imaginable shift is basically impossible ... just dream on pink out of reality......

      USA can not be reformed so NATO can not become peace and fairness protecting enterprise ....... as well as EU can not become prosperous block of countries.....

      Might be that since we can not break the chains of fascist zionist murderer empire .... God casted to us Scotland for --- DO IT FAST ONCE FOR ALL -----

      Scotland can join BRICS ..... I want to see Rasmussen's face on that announcement

  2. What kind of Scottish name is Salmond? A fish? He gives salmon fish a bad name!! ~darylluke.


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